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3/3/2018: ISA results were out today. The model was re-trained and numbers have been updated.
Similar to last year, I trained a linear classifier to predict the winners at this year's academy awards. A couple of pre-Oscar awards were included as features. A brief summary of the results are included as below (I've created polls as well so that you can vote for your favorites).
I've released all the data, source code, detailed results and associated evidences. Feel free to check out and hope you're having fun in exploring this mini-project.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Call Me by Your Name

Chance: 0.10%

Darkest Hour

Chance: 0.10%

Dunkirk

Chance: 0.11%

Get Out

Chance: 0.01%

Lady Bird

Chance: 0.01%

Phantom Thread

Chance: 0.36%

The Post

Chance: 0.13%

The Shape of Water

Chance: 97.19%

Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best motion picture -- winner
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA) -- best acting ensemble -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Directing:

    Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best film -- winner
  • Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best film -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actor -- winner
  • Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actress -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actress, motion picture drama -- winner
  • Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actor supporting role, motion picture -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actor -- winner
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor supporting role -- winner
  • Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor supporting role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actress -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best supporting actress -- winner
  • Best Original Screenplay:

  • Get Out (Jordan Peele)  Chance: 69.81%
  • Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)   Chance: 0.82%
  • The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani)   Chance: 1.44%
  • The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)   Chance: 0.25%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)   Chance: 27.68%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best screenplay original -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner
  • Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)   Chance: 16.76%
  • Logan (Scott Frank)   Chance: 16.96%
  • Mollys Game (Aaron Sorkin)   Chance: 16.56%
  • Mudbound (Dee Rees)   Chance: 32.90%
  • The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter)   Chance: 16.82%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best motion picture drama -- winner
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing adapted screenplay -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

  • "Mystery of Love" (Call Me by Your Name)   Chance: 5.52%
  • "Remember Me" (Coco)   Chance: 28.18%
  • "Stand Up for Something" (Marshall)   Chance: 8.69%
  • "Mighty River" (Mudbound)   Chance: 1.76%
  • "This Is Me" (The Greatest Showman)   Chance: 55.85%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original song motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best song -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best animated film -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

  • Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)   Chance: 6.03%
  • Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)   Chance: 6.10%
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)   Chance: 4.76%
  • The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)   Chance: 76.61%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)   Chance: 6.51%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original score motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best score -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best music -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)   Chance: 99.87%
  • Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)   Chance: 0.06%
  • Dunkirk (Hoyte Van Hoytema)   Chance: 0.06%
  • Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)   Chance: 0.00%
  • The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)   Chance: 0.01%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best composer -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best director motion picture -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Film Editing

  • Baby Driver (Paul Machliss)   Chance: 27.57%
  • Dunkirk (Lee Smith)   Chance: 25.90%
  • I, Tonya (Tatiana S Riegel)   Chance: 16.41%
  • The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)   Chance: 23.02%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)   Chance: 7.10%

  • Strong Signals:
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049 (John Nelson)   Chance: 56.00%  
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (Christopher Townsend)   Chance: 12.16%  
  • Kong: Skull Island (Stephen Rosenbaum)   Chance: 12.06%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ben Morris)   Chance: 9.64%  
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (Joe Letteri)   Chance: 10.15%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best special visual effects -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin)   Chance: 15.43%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett)   Chance: 9.40%  
  • Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker)   Chance: 58.63%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Semanick)   Chance: 8.96%  
  • The Shape of Water (Christian T. Cooke)   Chance: 7.58%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Sound Editing

  • Baby Driver (Julian Slater)   Chance: 4.61%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Mark A Mangini)   Chance: 3.89%  
  • Dunkirk (Richard King)   Chance: 71.12%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Matthew Wood)   Chance: 4.90%  
  • The Shape of Water (Nathan Robitaille   Chance: 15.48%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards (NSFCA) -- best cinematography -- nominee
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- nominee
  • Best Achievement in Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)   Chance: 21.81%  
  • Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)   Chance: 5.58%  
  • Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)   Chance: 3.20%  
  • The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)   Chance: 58.98%  
  • Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)   Chance: 10.44%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Darkest Hour (Kazuhiro Tsuji)   Chance: 51.42%  
  • Victoria & Abdul (Daniel Phillips)   Chance: 25.40%  
  • Wonder (Arjen Tuiten)   Chance: 23.18%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best makeup and hair -- winner
  • Best Achievement in Production Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood)   Chance: 9.84%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner)   Chance: 18.03%  
  • Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood)   Chance: 11.92%  
  • Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley)   Chance: 18.26%  
  • The Shape of Water (Paul D Austerberry)   Chance: 41.96%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best production design -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film comedy or musical -- winner
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA) -- best art direction -- winner
  • Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

  • A Fantastic Woman   Chance: 8.69%  
  • Loveless   Chance: 61.37%  
  • On Body and Soul   Chance: 9.63%  
  • The Insult   Chance: 9.63%  
  • The Square   Chance: 10.69%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best foreign film -- winner
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best foreign language film -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best foreign language film -- winner
  • Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

  • Coco (Lee Unkrich)   Chance: 99.99%  
  • Ferdinand (Carlos Saldanha)   Chance: 0.00%  
  • Loving Vincent (Dorota Kobiela)   Chance: 0.00%  
  • The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath)   Chance: 0.01%  
  • The Breadwinner (Nora Twomey)   Chance: 0.00%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best animated feature film -- winner
  • New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCCA) -- best animated film -- winner
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures animated -- winner
  • Best Documentary Feature

  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (Steve James)   Chance: 9.67%  
  • Faces Places (Agnès Varda)   Chance: 77.90%  
  • Icarus (Bryan Fogel)   Chance: 4.00%  
  • Last Men in Aleppo (Kareem Abeed)   Chance: 3.53%  
  • Strong Island (Yance Ford)   Chance: 4.90%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best documentary -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited documentary feature -- winner
  • Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (BSFCA) -- best documentary -- nominee