Accuracy: 52%. Hope we can do better next year :)
Data (hasn't been updated yet, some of them are out-of-date): awards.json.gz ; movies.json.gz

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Arrival

Chance: 1.57%

Fences

Chance: 4.21%

Hacksaw Ridge

Chance: 1.54%

Hell or High Water

Chance: 20.80%

Hidden Figures

Chance: 29.06%

La La Land

Chance: 28.40%

Lion

Chance: 7.19%

Manchester by the Sea

Chance: 1.45%

Moonlight

Chance: 5.79%

Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA -- Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures -- winner (1.01)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Picture -- winner (0.74)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Acting Ensemble -- winner (0.55)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture -- winner (0.54)
  • Best Achievement in Directing:

    Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA -- Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures -- winner (0.79)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Film -- winner (0.64)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Cinematography -- winner (0.61)
  • Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role -- winner (1.76)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama -- winner (1.11)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Actor -- winner (1.05)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Leading Actor -- winner (0.87)
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards, USA -- Best Actor -- winner (0.71)
  • Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama -- winner (1.74)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Leading Actress -- winner (1.23)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role -- winner (1.17)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role -- winner (0.76)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Actress -- winner (0.65)
  • Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture -- winner (1.37)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Supporting Actor -- winner (0.89)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role -- winner (0.79)
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards, USA -- Best Supporting Actor -- nominee (0.77)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Supporting Actor -- nominee (0.73)
  • Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role -- winner (1.83)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Supporting Actress -- winner (1.16)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Supporting Actress -- winner (0.88)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Supporting Actress -- winner (0.84)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role -- winner (0.72)
  • Best Original Screenplay:

  • Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)  Chance: 19.04%
  • Damien Chazelle (La La Land)   Chance: 29.57%
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou (The Lobster)   Chance: 13.09%
  • Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)   Chance: 35.08%
  • Mike Mills (20th Century Women)   Chance: 3.21%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Writers Guild of America, USA -- Best Original Screenplay -- winner (0.83)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Screenplay - Original -- winner (0.66)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Original Screenplay -- winner (0.66)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Screenplay - Motion Picture -- winner (0.59)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)   Chance: 27.55%
  • Eric Heisserer (Arrival)   Chance: 2.64%
  • August Wilson (Fences)   Chance: 31.26%
  • Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures)   Chance: 30.04%
  • Luke Davies (Lion)   Chance: 8.51%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Writers Guild of America, USA -- Best Adapted Screenplay -- winner (0.71)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture -- nominee (0.64)
  • Boston Society of Film Critics Awards -- Best Film -- winner (0.54)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Acting Ensemble -- nominee (0.51)
  • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

  • "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)   Chance: 16.84%
  • "City of Stars" (La La Land)   Chance: 31.25%
  • "Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)   Chance: 16.84%
  • "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)   Chance: 18.23%
  • "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)   Chance: 16.84%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Song -- winner (0.84)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Original Song - Motion Picture -- nominee (0.67)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Original Song - Motion Picture -- winner (0.5)
  • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

  • Mica Levi (Jackie)   Chance: 6.23%
  • Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)   Chance: 53.29%
  • Dustin O'Halloran, Volker Bertelmann (Lion)   Chance: 10.42%
  • Nicholas Britell (Moonlight)   Chance: 18.26%
  • Thomas Newman (Passengers)   Chance: 11.81%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Original Score - Motion Picture -- winner (1.08)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Director - Motion Picture -- nominee (0.51)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Score -- winner (0.5)
  • Best Achievement in Cinematography

  • Bradford Young (Arrival)   Chance: 27.52%
  • Linus Sandgren (La La Land)   Chance: 35.17%
  • Greig Fraser (Lion)   Chance: 23.03%
  • James Laxton (Moonlight)   Chance: 6.00%
  • Rodrigo Prieto (Silence)   Chance: 8.28%

  • Strong Signals:
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Composer -- winner (0.54)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Production Design -- winner (0.5)
  • Best Achievement in Film Editing

  • Tom Cross (La La Land)   Chance: 43.29%
  • John Gilbert (Hacksaw Ridge)   Chance: 11.16%
  • Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (Moonlight)   Chance: 1.82%
  • Joe Walker (Arrival)   Chance: 40.05%
  • Jake Roberts (Hell or High Water)   Chance: 3.68%

  • Strong Signals:
  • American Cinema Editors, USA -- Best Edited Feature Film - Dramatic -- winner (0.74)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Director -- winner (0.74)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Editing -- winner (0.69)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Sound -- winner (0.59)
  • Best Achievement in Visual Effects

  • Craig Hammack, Jason H. Snell, Jason Billington, Burt Dalton (Deepwater Horizon)   Chance: 36.53%  
  • Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, Paul Corbould (Doctor Strange)   Chance: 3.35%  
  • Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, Dan Lemmon (The Jungle Book)   Chance: 10.84%  
  • Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, Brad Schiff (Kubo and the Two Strings)   Chance: 36.40%  
  • John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal T. Hickel, Neil Corbould (Rogue One)   Chance: 12.88%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Special Visual Effects -- winner (0.85)
  • Visual Effects Society Awards -- Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Motion Picture -- winner (0.54)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Achievement in Special Visual Effects -- winner (0.52)
  • Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

    Best Achievement in Sound Editing

  • Sylvain Bellemare (Arrival)   Chance: 23.16%  
  • Wylie Stateman, Renee Tondelli (Deepwater Horizon)   Chance: 11.98%  
  • Robert Mackenzie, Andy Wright (Hacksaw Ridge)   Chance: 19.39%  
  • Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou (La La Land)   Chance: 40.89%  
  • Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman (Sully)   Chance: 4.59%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Sound -- winner (0.58)
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards, USA -- Best Cinematography -- nominee (0.54)
  • Best Achievement in Costume Design

  • Joanna Johnston (Allied)   Chance: 10.61%  
  • Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them)   Chance: 17.04%  
  • Consolata Boyle (Florence Foster Jenkins)   Chance: 12.98%  
  • Madeline Fontaine (Jackie)   Chance: 34.56%  
  • Mary Zophres (La La Land)   Chance: 24.81%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Costume Design -- winner (1.03)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Costume Design -- winner (0.74)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Production Design -- nominee (0.59)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Art Direction -- nominee (0.57)
  • Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Eva Von Bahr, Love Larson (A Man Called Ove)   Chance: 33.98%  
  • Joel Harlow, Richard Alonzo (Star Trek Beyond)   Chance: 30.54%  
  • Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Christopher Allen Nelson (Suicide Squad)   Chance: 35.48%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Young Actress -- nominee (0.61)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards -- Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture -- nominee (0.51)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Family Film (Live Action) -- nominee (0.51)
  • Best Achievement in Production Design

  • Arrival   Chance: 3.92%  
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them   Chance: 33.50%  
  • Hail, Caesar!   Chance: 20.83%  
  • La La Land   Chance: 19.39%  
  • Passengers   Chance: 22.36%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Art Direction -- winner (0.67)
  • American Cinema Editors, USA -- Best Edited Feature Film - Comedy or Musical -- winner (0.55)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Production Design -- winner (0.54)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Production Design -- nominee (0.52)
  • Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

  • A Man Called Ove (Sweden)   Chance: 12.98%  
  • The Salesman (Iran)   Chance: 10.53%  
  • Tanna (Australia)   Chance: 12.98%  
  • Toni Erdmann (Germany)   Chance: 55.13%  
  • Land of Mine (Denmark)   Chance: 8.37%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Foreign Film -- winner (0.79)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Foreign Film -- nominee (0.71)
  • Golden Globes, USA -- Best Foreign Language Film -- nominee (0.69)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Foreign-Language Film -- winner (0.64)
  • British Independent Film Awards -- Best International Independent Film -- nominee (0.58)
  • Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

  • Kubo and the Two Strings   Chance: 22.25%  
  • Moana   Chance: 25.39%  
  • My Life as a Zucchini   Chance: 10.40%  
  • The Red Turtle   Chance: 7.61%  
  • Zootopia   Chance: 34.35%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Animated Feature -- winner (0.84)
  • BAFTA Awards -- Best Animated Film -- winner (0.71)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Animated Feature -- winner (0.63)
  • Visual Effects Society Awards -- Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature Motion Picture -- winner (0.59)
  • Visual Effects Society Awards -- Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture -- winner (0.57)
  • Best Documentary Feature

  • Fire at Sea   Chance: 7.97%  
  • I Am Not Your Negro   Chance: 7.08%  
  • Life, Animated   Chance: 8.76%  
  • O.J.: Made in America   Chance: 68.01%  
  • 13th   Chance: 8.19%  

  • Strong Signals:
  • National Board of Review, USA -- Best Documentary -- winner (0.95)
  • National Board of Review, USA -- Best Documentary -- nominee (0.95)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Documentary Feature -- nominee (0.79)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards -- Best Documentary Feature -- winner (0.65)
  • American Cinema Editors, USA -- Best Edited Documentary - Feature -- winner (0.63)