This is a freshman seminar on optimal play in casino games, or "How to gamble, if you must" (from the title of the 1965 classic book on stochastic processes by Lester Dubins and Leonard Savage). We will survey some of the most popular casino games, and consider questions such as: Where are the best bets in a casino? What factors determine how much you should bet? How large should your stake be given a minimal bet? What are the chances that ultimately, you will be "ruined," and how long will it take? Do "betting systems" work? How is randomness achieved (if at all) in computer-based games?
Note: The point of this seminar is not to encourage gambling! In fact, you will learn that casino gambling is almost always a losing proposition (at least in terms of money, over the long run), and importantly, you will learn how to figure out why. So why study casino games? Because they allow us to investigate deep ideas in probability, randomness, and risk, in a fun way.
Instructor: Joseph Pasquale APM 5121
Books: Chance, Luck and Statistics Horace C. Levinson Dover, 1963 Bringing Down the House Ben Mezrich Free Press, 2002